Six social trends set to change how we travel

Societal changes seem to be particularly hard to predict because they rarely keep to straight line trajectories (unlike demographic trends, for example) but instead tend to be subject to tipping points and radical shifts in direction. Furthermore, they tend to be fuzzy by nature, hard to describe, and even harder to quantify. Nevertheless, since travel is heavily dependent on travel for social reasons (with work travel also affected by how society is organised) it follows that it is affected by societal changes.

In this article, six social trends  are very briefly introduced to prompt thought and discussion concerning  some emerging issues that have the potential to change travel behaviour.

These trends are interlinked, are also accompanied by other social  trends, and also influenced by some major underlying factors such as  climate change, demographic change, and ongoing technological  development. One of the interesting characteristics of these varying  trends is that they often work in opposing directions, so the skill in  trying to understand their effects lies in deciphering the interactions  between the trends, and identifying which ones will dominate.

Globalisation

The greater ease and reduced cost of longer distance travel, plus the  ability of the internet to break down geographic barriers almost  entirely, mean that people are sharing ideas and information from an  increasingly wide range of sources. This enables trends to cross the  globe rather than be focused on a neighbourhood, region or country. In  fact, country boundaries will become increasingly meaningless, and  people across the world increasingly homogenised. The importance of  global brands in consumer goods, finance, and entertainment will  continue to increase, with companies searching for economies of scale on  an international level.

For those wishing to escape globalism it will mean tracking down  remote destinations which have yet to be globalised. It also means that  there is less point in travelling abroad, if all you find is a slightly  different version of what you can find on your doorstep.

It equally has implications for the workplace, where there will be an  increasing need to communicate with colleagues living in very disparate  locations, potentially meaning that the central workplace (typically  the office) becomes less important and remote working (including  teleworking from home) more so.

Localisation

Localisation is a counter-trend to globalisation and reflects a  desire for people and places to retain their identity. It will be  fuelled also by environmental concerns about the transport of goods and  people over unnecessarily long distances. Purchasing locally-sourced  goods and holidaying sustainably will become what many will consider the  ‘proper’ thing to do.

The clash of these two trends will probably end in a compromise.  Brands and places will conform to many of the general trends but look to  add a local ‘twist’. Shoppers will be given the choice between locally  produced goods, and the additional variety that sourced goods from  further afield can deliver.

In terms of the workplace, it is likely to mean that people from  across the world working in a specific field end up moving their  residence and place of work to clusters of excellence, like small-scale  Silicon Valleys. This agglomeration effect is likely because people are  essentially social animals and like being with other people sharing  similar interests.

Smarter living

The recession has led to people thinking more seriously about their  expenditure, and in some cases, about more fundamental things such as  what makes us happy. It has highlighted the point that having more money  and more material goods doesn’t necessarily lead to greater happiness.  Another trend is the ready availability of increasing amounts of  information via the internet. These three factors combine into a trend  towards smarter living which means making more informed and rounded  decisions, in which environmental issues are considered as well as those  which affect the individual and their happiness.

A good example of a product which fits well with the concept of  smarter living is car clubs. Being a member of a car club avoids  conspicuous consumerism and, depending on the need for a car, can be a  more efficient and less expensive option. Note that a counter-trend to  this is time poverty, and one can expect that only some segments of the  population will adopt a smarter living lifestyle, though some elements  of it are likely to be adopted more widely. Products which are  personalised (or appear to be) will be attractive to this wider group  since their objective of choosing a smarter product can be realised  without having to invest time in research (this product ticks all
my boxes so why look elsewhere?).

Search for reality

The ‘search for reality’ is to some extent a backlash to the digital  world. It affects where we look to go on holiday, the food we want to  eat, our hobbies and interests, and the brands with which we wish to be  associated.

For example, it means greater interest in ‘experiential’ holidays  where untouched countryside or original cultures can be experienced  first hand. It means choosing food where the provenance is known and the  level of processing minimised. Interest in genealogy and family history  can be expected to be on the increase, along with participatory sports.  Regarding sports activities, a supporting trend is the backlash to a  sedentary lifestyle and a desire to be fitter and healthier. In  transport terms therefore, the ‘search for reality’ is very much a  positive trend in that it implies an increase in travel (going to places  and events to experience them, rather than just seeing them on a  screen, even if it is 3D), and also an increase in walking and cycling.

Time poverty

Curiously, as technology has enabled us to do more in less time, we  actually seem to have less free time, not more. Faster technology seems  to have created a neverending loop where there is a continuous push for  speed and productivity, and we’re always trying to keep up with the next  generation of computers and gadgets. One of the consequences of  improving technology is that we have access to increasing volumes of  data. However, this is combined with less time to sift through it, so  there will be an increasing need for reliable sources of personalised  information which screens out irrelevant data. The disadvantage to this  is that new ideas and creativity more generally are fuelled by random  connections which this process will stifle. Genuine creativity may  therefore become a more valued resource.

Time poverty is an important trend in relation to travel, since  travel is a major user of time. This means that speed is important, but  not at the expense of quality (see ‘flight to quality’) and it may be  that enabling travel time to be more productive is a more important  consideration. This is facilitated by the development of mobile  technologies which mean that working or socialising remotely via the  internet is becoming not only easier, but also the behavioural norm.

Flight to quality

The ‘flight to quality’ is at least in part a consequence of the  recession and time poverty, and is related to the ‘smarter living’ and  ‘search for reality’ trends. In an increasingly uncertain world people  are taking refuge in quality, but consuming it in a smarter way, such as  by checking that the quality is genuine, and by being more selective  about luxury purchases. This, for example, includes renting rather than  purchasing luxury items, and purchasing little, affordable luxuries  rather than big ticket items.

Although quality and luxury are not quite the same, there is a strong  link between the two: all luxuries have to be good quality, though  there are some quality items that wouldn’t be seen as luxuries because  they are primarily functional – a quality kitchen or household  appliance, for example. In terms of travel, it may mean that people are  more selective about when they travel (replacing some travel with  technology), but when they do, they want to travel in comfort, or in an  environment where they can use their time effectively.